Russia is anticipating that Iran will be attacked this summer and has developed a contingency plan to mass troops along the Iranian border. On the surface, this move will be used by the Russians to justify the move to protect its interests in the region as well assist the Islamic regime if needed. Their plan doesn’t leave out the possibility of Russian forces to engage Israelis and Americans if Moscow feels its interests in Iran are threatened. The goal will be a show of force to stop any former Soviet states from providing military support to any country which attacks Iran and/or Syria.
Moscow’s involvement in Syria includes an upgrading of a Russian-maintained long-range radar surveillance station in Damascus. This will alert the Arab nation of any incoming NATO aerial attack and monitor the Air operations of Israel and other nearby countries. By mutual agreement with Russia and Iran, this station will provide early warning alerts of any Israeli Air operations. The Russians are certain that Israel will strike this summer; this may be based on the overheard conversation between Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev last month.
The Russian plan is to prevent former Soviet countries from providing bases to the United States and Israel that may be used to strike targets in Iran. Russia has a historical paranoia of foreign armies near it border, and this plan reflects that perspective. Putin’s Russia will take advantage of the world’s obsession with Iran and invade the Georgia Republic Armenia and Azerbaijan with little attention and objections from the United States and the UN. This will be seen as a win-win situation for the Russians and their Iranian allies.
If attacked by any Western powers, Iran’s security depends on the intervention of China and Russia on its behalf. The Russians can always depend on their Asian friends to block any UN sanctions and will block any resolution involving military action. Iran will have no objection to the Russian military massing along it borders. In their view, it will provide a strong deterrence against Israel and the United States.
Obama sold out Poland to the Russians during the SALT talks; how much would he and the Secretary of State object to Putin’s plan to rebuild the former Soviet Empire? What else did Obama whisper to Medvedev? Time will tell.