Skewed polling samples still abound among Barack Obama’s most faithful supporters.
CBS/NYTimes/Quinnipiac polls show Obama up by 5 over Romney in Ohio,by 1 point in Florida,and by 2 in Virginia. The samples,however,leave much to be desired. In Ohio,Democrats enjoy an 8 point advantage (37/29/30);in Florida 7 points,(37/30/29);and in Virginia 8 points (35/27/35). The Florida and Virginia advantages are larger than those enjoyed by Obama in 2008! Romney leads among independents at +5 in Florida,+6 in Ohio,and +21 in Florida!! With these margins among independent voters and a voter turnout similar to that which favored Republicans in 2010 (tied in Florida,+1 in Ohio,and +4 in Virginia),Obama will be hard-pressed to carry any of the 3 states.
Pew poll:October 24-28,1495 likely voters. Pew states neither candidate has an edge among early voters,then shows that 43% have voted for Obama while 50% voted for Romney. In 2008,53% of early votes had gone for Obama and only 34% for McCain. Pew found the national race tied at 47-47 between the candidates (among likely voters),but no Party breakdown was listed for the sample.
A new National Journal poll has Obama up on Romney 50-45. According to the National Journal,“voters lean toward retaining the status quo in Washington…” The poll also found that “…the 2012 electorate will be virtually unchanged from 2008…” They therefore use a +8 Democrat sample.
Rasmussen:As Hot Air reports,the Rasmussen poll gives Romney a 50-47 lead in Colorado. Wisconsin is tied at 49. Rasmussen’s Presidential Approval Snapshot reveals that 41% strongly disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing while just 30% approve. The national tracking poll still has Romney up 49-47 over Obama. Romney also maintains his 50-48 lead in Ohio. And Romney continues to lead in the Swing State poll by 50-45.
NBC/Wall St. Journal/Marist polls: Obama leads in Iowa by 50-44. Dems enjoy a 3 point sample advantage among likely voters. Obama also leads Wisconsin 49-46. Interesting to compare these results with Rasmussen,which has Obama up 49-48 in Iowa and even at 49 apiece in Wisconsin.
Other stuff:Gallup says it will resume polling today after having stopped on Monday the 29th due to Sandy. According to Reuters,90% of Europeans would vote for Obama. “By continental European standards,Obama is considered right-of-centre or even right-wing…” said a pollster to Reuters. That’s too scary to even think about. The Gallup survey that shows Romney up 52-45 over Obama among early voters polled 3,300 voters! A big sample and therefore more likely to be accurate.
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